What looks like a far-off political mess is exposing how vulnerable Canada really is, especially on energy
The sudden removal of Nicolás Maduro as president of Venezuela is being treated by some in Canada as a distant foreign drama. It isn’t. Venezuela’s political crisis marks a decisive geopolitical shift in the Western Hemisphere, and Canada is poorly positioned for what comes next.
For years, Venezuela functioned less like a sovereign state and more like a criminal enterprise. Under Hugo Chávez and then Maduro, a once-prosperous country collapsed into authoritarianism, corruption and economic ruin. Millions fled. Political opponents were jailed or tortured. State institutions were effectively hollowed out.
What is often missed in Canadian discussions is that this was not merely a domestic tragedy. Venezuela became a regional destabilizer, serving as a hub for drug trafficking, transnational crime and foreign interference, aligning itself closely with China, Russia, Iran and Cuba. Its territory and resources were leveraged in ways openly hostile to Western interests.
That is why the U.S. action against Maduro matters, and why Canada should be paying closer attention.
The move was not an impulsive intervention, nor an ideological crusade. It was a strategic decision, carried out with precision, aimed at neutralizing a regime that had become a security liability for the hemisphere. Maduro has been under U.S. indictment for years on drug trafficking and organized crime charges while his government was subject to sweeping international sanctions for human rights abuses and electoral fraud.
In effect, Washington signalled that it is once again prepared to enforce order in its own neighbourhood. That shift carries consequences not just for U.S. policy, but for every country that depends on stability and access in the hemisphere.
Canada lives in that neighbourhood, whether it chooses to acknowledge it or not.
For Ottawa, this moment should also prompt a reassessment of how foreign policy is actually exercised in the modern world. Canada has long favoured multilateral institutions, consensus-building and process over power. Those tools matter, but they are not substitutes for capability. When institutions fail to act and threats persist, other countries will move. Venezuela is a case study in what happens when patience runs out.
The most immediate consequence for Canada lies in energy. Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Its production collapsed under years of mismanagement and sanctions, creating space for Canadian heavy oil to supply U.S. refineries, particularly along the Gulf Coast. That window is now narrowing.
As Venezuelan oil re-enters the market under U.S. supervision, Canadian producers face renewed competition in their primary export destination. Canada sells the vast majority of its oil to a single customer, at a persistent discount, and has limited capacity to redirect supply when market conditions change.
For years, policymakers insisted this dependence was manageable. Venezuela’s return to the market reveals how fragile that assumption was.
Canada’s vulnerability is the result of choices. Pipeline projects were delayed, cancelled or smothered in regulatory uncertainty. Successive governments promised action, consultations and balance. What they delivered was inertia. The outcome is predictable. When global energy dynamics shift, Canada absorbs the shock rather than shaping it.
The fiscal consequences for Canada are real. Lower energy revenues translate into weaker government finances, fewer private-sector jobs and reduced capacity to fund public services. At a time of slowing growth and mounting deficits, this matters.
There is also a broader lesson about realism. Middle powers do not get to opt out of geography or markets. They either adapt or fall behind. Canada’s challenge is not a lack of resources or allies, but a reluctance to align policy with reality.
None of this requires endorsing heavy-handed interventionism or abandoning Canadian values. It requires acknowledging the world as it is. Energy security, economic resilience and strategic relevance are not optional for a trading nation. They are necessities.
The crisis in Venezuela should prompt reflection, not denial. The United States has adjusted to a harsher reality. Canada has not yet done so.
If we continue to hesitate while others move, we will remain reactive rather than influential. That is not a position a serious country should accept.
David Leis is President and CEO of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy and host of the Leaders on the Frontier podcast.
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